A common misconception is that the market cannot be predicted and that hedge fund managers are no better than dart-throwing monkeys. Many academic research papers back up this claim with data. This is an overly simplistic view. Just because some markets cannot be predicted under some experimental settings, such as equities traded on a daily basis, this does not mean no market can be predicted in any setting. Let us try to get an intuitive understanding of what it means to predict the market.
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